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April 16, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 17th
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

GBP could benefit from higher than expected CPI…
…but we still see upside as very limited given current pricing of rate cuts
JPY in focus as weakness continues
AUD looks to have further downside risk

North American Summary and Highlights 16 Apr
Freemium Article

April 16, 2024 8:01 PM UTC

Overview - The USD ended mostly little changed despite a brief sharp dip on USD/JPY and a bounce on comments from Fed’s Powell.  

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Inflation continuing to move in right direction
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 6:18 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Powell - Tone changes, no longer downplaying strong inflation data
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 5:59 PM UTC

Chart USD/CAD Update: Extending gains
Freemium Article

April 16, 2024 4:14 PM UTC

Late-December gains continue to extend

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 17th
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 3:19 PM UTC

GBP could benefit from higher than expected CPI…
…but we still see upside as very limited given current pricing of rate cuts
JPY in focus as weakness continues
AUD looks to have further downside risk

Preview: Due April 24 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - HInts of underlying improvement
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

We expect March durable goods orders to rise by 2.5%, with most of the gain coming from transport, aircraft in particular, but we expect a 0.5% increase ex transport to show some hints of underlying improvement. 

JPY flows: JPY spike probably not intervention, but...
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 2:04 PM UTC

The sharp JPY spike after the US equity market open doesn't look like intervention, but the threat remains

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Expects lower inflation, if not will keep rates higher for longer
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:52 PM UTC

Chart AUD/USD Update: Fresh year lows at 0.6400/10 - studies remain under pressure
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:51 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have reached strong support at congestion around 0.6400 and the 0.6410 Fibonacci retracement

U.S. March Industrial Production - Manufacturing backing improved ISM signal
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:34 PM UTC

March industrial production with a 0.4% increase was in line with expectations though manufacturing with a rise of 0.5% exceeded expectations and there appears to be some underlying improvement there. 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Edging higher in JPY-driven trade - studies continue to highlight caution
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

Choppy trade is giving way to fresh JPY-driven gains

U.S. March Housing Starts slide, permits suggest trend is peaking
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:11 PM UTC

March housing starts were significantly weaker than expected with a 14.7% decline to 1321k, while permits fell by 4.3% to 1458k. Both declines need to be seen alongside February increases of 12.7% for starts and 2.3% for permits, but there are hints that a lengthy uptrend is now peaking.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Fresh 34 year highs in JPY-driven trade
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:05 PM UTC

Little change to the bullish tone, with prices posting a fresh 34-year high in JPY-driven trade

CAD flows: CAD softer after weaker CPI
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 12:57 PM UTC

All CPI measures below expectations, widening spreads with the US and suggesting USD/CAD scope above 1.38

Canada March CPI a little firmer after two soft months, but BoC core rates continue to fall
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 12:53 PM UTC

March’s Canadian CPI has seen an as expected increase to 2.9% yr/yr from February’s unexpectedly softer 2.8%. On the month the seasonally adjusted data is a little firmer after two soft months but the Bank of Canada’s core rates continue to fall.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Selling interest appearing at fresh 2024 highs
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

The anticipated break above 106.00 is meeting selling interest at fresh 2024 year highs just beneath congestion resistance at 106.50

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Extending gains from 4-year lows
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 11:52 AM UTC

The anticipated break above 4.3000 is currently pressuring strong resistance at 4.3300 - 4.3500

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Extending pressure on strong resistance at 19.0000 - 19.1050
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 10:50 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend pressure on resistance within 19.0000 - 19.1050

European Summary and Highlights 16 Apr
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 10:46 AM UTC

EUR/USD and USD/JPY were both firmer through the European morning, both gaining around 20 pips.

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Cautious trade - limited tests higher
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

The anticipated fresh test lower has bounced from above congestion support at 1.4600

Psychology for major markets Apr 16
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 10:19 AM UTC

Rising US yields and geopolitical tension supporting USD and undermining risk sentiment

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 16th
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 9:12 AM UTC

GBP in focus on labour market and CPI data
Scope for a more dovish tone to emerge if earnings data soften further
EUR/USD downside looks more restricted from here
JPY likely to have bottomed out on the crosses

...
China: Q1 Upside Surprise, but March Disappoints
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 8:33 AM UTC

Q1 GDP upside surprise was driven mainly by public sector investment.  With the government still to implement the Yuan 1trn of special sovereign bonds for infrastructure spending, public investment will likely remain a key driving force.  However, the breakdown of the March data show that retail s

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Room for lower in the coming sessions
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 8:10 AM UTC

Little change, as cautious trade extends pressure on strong support at 0.9684/94

Chart USD/CHF Update: Further consolidation at 2024 highs - studies flattening
Freemium Article

April 16, 2024 7:59 AM UTC

Still little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Balanced in range
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 7:45 AM UTC

No change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/USD Update: Pressuring 1.0600/10 - studies continue to point lower
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

Little change, as late-December losses extend still further to post a fresh 2024 year low

Chart GBP/USD Update: Another fresh year low - studies under pressure
Freemium Article

April 16, 2024 7:26 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break lower

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Extending bounce from 1.6365/50 support
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 7:15 AM UTC

Bounce from the 1.6365/50 support to regain the 1.6500 level see room for stronger bounce to retrace losses from the 1.6745, March YTD high

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Consolidating, room for deeper pullback from 1.0955 high
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 6:54 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extending consolidation around the 1.0900 level following bounce from the 1.0875 low

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Still supported at the 190.00 level, room for lower later
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 190.00 level

GBP flows: GBP softer after labour market data
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 6:31 AM UTC

Earnings data broadly in line with consensus, but employment data showing clearer weakness suggests upside risks for EUR/GBP

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Leaning lower from the 100.80 high
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 6:23 AM UTC

Leaning lower in choppy trade from the 100.80 high

Chart USD/MYR Update: Retest 4.7925/4.7975 highs
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 6:00 AM UTC

 Pressure remains on the upside to retest the 4.7925/4.7975, 2023 and February YTD highs

Chart USD/INR Update: Fresh all-time high
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 5:22 AM UTC

 Gapped up at the opening above the 83.4550 high to reach fresh all-time high at 83.5375

Asia Summary and Highlights 16 Apr
Freemium Article

April 16, 2024 5:18 AM UTC

Asia Session
While Japanese cabinet's Suzuki and Hayashi both seems to have escalated their rhetoric against the JPY weakness, the broad USD strength seems to be in the driver seat. No doubt the pace of JPY weakness has been rapid and we are getting closer and closer to the intervention zone, the lan

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 16th
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 5:15 AM UTC

GBP in focus on labour market and CPI data
Scope for a more dovish tone to emerge if earnings data soften further
EUR/USD downside looks more restricted from here
JPY likely to have bottomed out on the crosses

AUD/USD flows: Dragged by sentiment
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 5:15 AM UTC

Risk sentiment broadly weak

USD/JPY flows: One way train
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 4:50 AM UTC

USD remains strong

Chart USD/CNH Update: Retest the 7.2820, Mar high
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 3:30 AM UTC

Saw break above the trendline from the September high at the 7.2700 level to retest the 7.2820, Mar YTD high

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Sharply higher above the 16000 level
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 3:21 AM UTC

Gapped up at the open from the holiday break above the 16000 level to reach fresh high at the 16200 level

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains, scope to the 37.00 level
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 2:45 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 36.80 high has given way to retest here following bounce from the 36.30/36.20 support.

Chart USD/KRW Update: Pressuring the 1400.00 level
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 2:33 AM UTC

Further extending the bullish break of the 2023 year high at 1363.00 to reach the 1400.00 level

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 2:14 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 1.3600/20 area has given way to break to further extend strong rally from the 1.3438 low of last week

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure, 1.2400 level within reach
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:49 AM UTC

Consolidation above the 1.2427 low of last week has given way to fresh selling pressure

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending losses, focus on 1.0600
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:37 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the downside to extend sharp losses last week

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending choppy trade below 165.35 high
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:21 AM UTC

 Turned up from the 162.60/162.00 support area to extend choppy trade below the 165.35, March multi-year high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains, scope to 155.00/15
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 1:00 AM UTC

 Pressure remains firmly on the upside to reach fresh high at 154.45 

Chart NZD/USD Update: Extending losses
Paying Article

April 16, 2024 12:38 AM UTC

Prices remains under pressure and losses extend to the .5900 level