Is Arab-Spring-Style ‘Revolution’ No Longer Looming in the Nile Basin African Countries?

All of the above has been going on against the background of poor governance and economic performance as well as various forms of human rights repressions. The recent global financial crisis and food price hike, exacerbated by increasing population and erratic climate change, have not helped to alleviate the simmering political and economic discontents. According to well-established local east African newspapers, the prices of basic foods such as sugar and loaf of bread in Kenya (in most of the Nile basin countries for that matter) are reported to be equal or more than in USA. Recently, a family friend who paid me a visit to the UK from Ethiopia (one of the poorest country in the world), commented that the cost of food appears to be cheaper here than in Africa if one takes into account the quality and quantity. Given the obvious significant differences in wages and work opportunities between Africa and the West, one can imagine how basic survival is becoming increasingly unbearable for the majority of people in that part of the world. Slowly but surely, the whole situation is crimping into the conscious of the wider population, pointing only to one direction of possible public revolt.

In the light of the above, unless meaningful positive changes that appeal to the wider society are realised and unless the long-serving leaders pave the way for genuinely inclusive governance, it would be difficult to see how the current status quos can be maintained for long. In other words, how can an Arab Spring style revolution with uncertain consequences can be avoided, whether it is triggered by poor economic conditions and hunger or the brewing dissatisfaction of the monopoly of the political-economy by minorities?

The other critical question for a neutral observers in my position, who suffered from the after math of previous conflicts in the region, would be whether the long-overdue serving leaders of Nile Basin countries are paying enough attention or ignoring to address the looming situations. Evidently, from the tone of their voices, they are at least appear to be aware of the legacy and the threat of the Arab Spring style revolution to their overdue monopoly of power. What is not certain, however, is whether the leaders have the full grasps of the real problems and seek to pave way for lasting sustainable political solutions. Sceptics are quick to point out, referring to the noises coming out from government sources, that the leaders seem either not to have learnt from or care about the recent past history. The respective government’s spokes persons, from Zimbabwe in Southern Africa all the way to North Sudan, were quick to say that the Arab Spring countries political dynamics are very different from those of Africans. They warn, directly or indirectly, that any resistance to their authority on their backyard will not be tolerated and will be crushed and would be futile. They add that they have the people support (albeit small) and has the legitimacy to continue to rule. To quote few examples “ There will be no Egyptian-like revolution here”… “ We would just lock them up in jail forever in the most humane way and that would be the end of the story.” Such resolute expression of brutalization and false claims of the affection of fellow citizens, however, are neither unusual nor wise. One only needs to reflect on the most recent fate of the self-claimed the beloved Brother Leader of Libya – the late Muammar Gaddafi.

Aside the economy and democratic right issues, there is also the issue of cross countries security / insecurity which has become an entrenched feature of politics and development in the Nile Basin Africa. As I observed first-hand, conflict inside any one country or between any two will always have peculiar major ramifications for all the rest in this region. It has a tendency of resulting in the breaking and making up of states, including producing a new land-locked countries. The separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia (land-locked now) in 1993 and the independence of South Sudan (also land-locked now) in 2011 are clear examples. Not far away, Somaliland is another potential case for divorce as it has been running its affairs separately from the rest of Somalia for over 20 years. To put flame on the fire, the longest on-going civil war in Southern Somalia, is reported to be fueled by proxy war of opposing neighboring countries as well as other external players across the sea. It is a tough place to be to all concerned.

Cognizant of the problematic cross-countries security threats, the ‘new’ generation Nile Basin leaders have been taking a new positive measures by forming IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), which is supported by the international communities and tasked to promote and implement mutual activism and intervention. To cite an example, except Sudan and Eritrea, the remaining regional countries have sent troops to Somalia to oust the radical Islamist insurgents. More recently, Ethiopia sent peace keepers to help maintain peace in the disputed oil reach border region of Abiye in Sudan. The overall aim of IGAD appears to be (a) avoiding or minimizing the cycles of old conflicts by not harboring opposition movements on each other’s soil (b) harnessing the mutual political and economy interdependent, thereby, promote development.

Although the roles of IGAD and the efforts put so far are largely commendable, it is already proven to be a complex and difficult task. Whilst the countries appear to solve some of the nationalistic political problems, they don’t seem to provide solutions to the underlying mutual economic ties which, in turn, affect security and prosperity. The on-going problem of fair share of oil resources between North and South Sudan is one example. Another example is the land-locked Ethiopia, which has so far shown no desire to use the ideal port of Asab, preferring to stifle its arc-foe Eritrea economically. Unfortunately, what all these point out is that politics still appear to overshadow the region’s interlocking economic potentials of rational use of natural and human resources.

Whatever the challenges and the situations are it is neither wise nor viable for the long-serving Nile Basin leaders, like all the previous dictators before them, to try to hang on power for life. Unfortunately, although the recent dramatic fall from grace of north African Arab countries leaders could send a clear message or serve as a lesson to any rational person, the people in power are appears to be typically insular to the real situations. Some still try to prolong their stay in power by re-branding the same old system under different guises, what some commentators characterize us pseudo-federal system and ethno-national system or even own terms of multi-party system. Others reposition themselves by being a strategic Western and regional ally, for example, in playing key roles in the common cause of fighting international terrorism. Nevertheless, the recent Arab springs show that even the West / International Community strategic support will not insulate autocratic regimes, when the unstoppable mass revolt commences.

Finally, it worth noting that in this global information and communication age, ordinary people are more aware today about the rights and responsibilities of citizens as well as the ruling elites than previously. The time and game of manipulation and distortion of exceeding constitutional mandate are almost up. In view of this, the remaining critical question would be, who will be the next responsible and rational leader that relinquish power on own will before it is too late and being pushed off. Although they are few and far between, there are exemplars leaders in Africa that one can follow. Attempts by the seemingly powerful out-of-touch rulers to suppress the wills and winds of democratic change have so far failed. It only eventually leads to a disastrous fall from grace and the chaos we witnessed in the aftermath of the Arab-Spring. In connection to forthcoming ‘General Elections’ in the neighboring East African nations of Ethiopia and Sudan, for example, we hear reports of on-going free media and legitimate opposition movements repressions. This needs not be repeated. In particular, those in the helm of power have both the responsibility and the means to avert it by doing the right thing.

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Dr Samuel Ayele Bekalo is a Research and Development Education Fellow based in Leeds – Bradford (UK) . Aside Development Education , his recent work focuses in examining the plights of and representing refugees and migrants from East / Horn of Africa, including the ‘boat people’ crossing the rough Mediterranean Sea to reach the shore of Europe and beyond. He can be reached via private e-mail and web (Samuel@ayele90.freeserve.co.uk ,www.ILPA.country experts.org.uk)